Manufacturing automation is one of the most compelling capital investments a company can make — on paper. The ROI models are typically built on projected throughput increases, labor cost reductions, quality improvements, and demand stability.
The problem is that these models rarely examine what happens when multiple assumptions underperform simultaneously. A throughput increase of 8% instead of the projected 22%. Demand softening 10% due to market conditions nobody predicted. Two senior operators leaving during the transition period, taking institutional knowledge with them.
Each deviation, individually, is within normal variance. Together, they can push a company toward debt covenant limits within 12 months of the investment. The strategy was sound. The assumptions were untested.
Independent decision review examines these compound scenarios before contracts are signed — when restructuring the deal to protect cash flow is still possible. After commitment, the options narrow rapidly and the cost of adjustment multiplies.