When most people think of catastrophic business decisions, they imagine reckless bets made by overconfident leaders. But in four decades of experience across international trade, manufacturing, healthcare, and multinational operations, the pattern that emerges is different — and more troubling.
The most expensive failures come from decisions that had broad support. The strategy was researched. The financials were modeled. The team was aligned. The board approved. Everyone agreed this was the right move.
That agreement is exactly the problem. Consensus creates confidence. Confidence suppresses scrutiny. And when the assumptions beneath the decision have never been independently challenged, the entire organization moves forward on untested ground — together.
By the time the hidden weaknesses surface, the capital is committed, the contracts are signed, and the cost of course correction has multiplied tenfold. The decision was not reckless. It was unexamined. And in business, the unexamined decision is the most dangerous one of all.